It is now highly likely that an El Niño event will develop by the fall, according to a new outlook from the Climate Prediction Center and Columbia University's International Institute for Climate and Society. El Niño events typically develop during the spring and summer, and peak in strength during the late fall and winter
Consistent with this, the new outlook shows the odds of an El Niño event rising above 50% as early as this summer, and the odds of that same event increasing to 78% from October through January
El Niño and La Niña events refer to fluctuations in air and ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific. El Niño events are characterized by warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and they add heat to the atmosphere, thereby warming global average temperatures. Since this warming comes on top of the background warming from manmade emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, El Niño events can lead to records being set for the planet's warmest year. Both 1998 and 2005 were El Niño years, and they were the top two warmest years on record, with the precise rankings differing depending which data set is used. Read more...
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There's Now Nearly an 80% Chance of an El Nino Event by the Fall
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